Walthamstow after the oil runs out – what will it be like? Transition town coming soon

3:38pm Wednesday 1st October 2008

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What might Waltham Forest be like after the oil runs out… After the oil runs out?! The "Peak Oil" theory is complex, but put simply it's based on the fact that each oil well that's dug only has a certain amount of oil in it.

The amount you can get from each well per day goes up and up until you hit the top of a curve, when you've got half of the oil out of the well. Then after the peak, it gets tougher and tougher (there's less pressure pushing oil out, you need to drill further down, you need new kit etc.) to get to the remaining oil – you get less out each day and it costs more and more, until finally the well runs dry.

The same idea also carries, so the theory goes, across entire oilfields, nations and the entire planet. We know that our north sea oil peaked and died off after the 70s. And many other countries are past their peaks. Plus each year, finds of new oil (the Alberta Tar Sands, Alaska, Russia included) get smaller and smaller.

Many of the world's leading scientists and oil analysts believe in the theory. And worse, most reckon we're either at or past the point of peak oil. That from here on in, oil supply will just dwindle away. And that's as China, India and many other countries are demanding more and more of it. That's one of the reasons why we've got rising petrol, food and gas prices.

Some of the predictions about peak oil are very scary. As oil supplies really run down (according to some in the next 20-30 years), then oil prices will crush foreign holidays, freighted food, possibly even our entire banking system. Food riots, (more) oil wars etc. are all possibilities. But some people are planning to try and steer communities through the worst of this – by making them less reliant on petrol now and more self-reliant in the future. And that includes some people in Walthamstow.

The "Transition Town" movement started with nice, middle class towns – the kind of places where you can't find a Tesco, but can find three different organic greengrocers. Totnes, Devon was first; Lewes, Bristol and Glastonbury followed. And Brixton. Yes, Brixton. And now Walthamstow.

All of these places – from suburbs to inner-city areas are planning how to reduce reliance on petrol now. And how to plan for a petrol-scarce future. Walthamstow's first Transition Town meeting is Saturday 25 October, 11am on, the Quaker Meeting House on Jewel Road, E17.

I reckon Walthamstow's fairly well-placed to survive the end of oil. We already have a central market – cutting dramatically the food miles necessary to deliver loads of fresh produce to us. And we're not over built-up (yet) – there's lots of gardens and green space in Walthamstow (handy, when we'll all have to start growing our own food). And despite there being plenty of boy racers about, judging by the recent Car Free Day, Tour De Waltham Forest and Freewheel – there are plenty of people round here already opting for a bicycle over a car.

Walthamstow after the oil runs out? Could be quite a nice place. Come along to the meeting, get involved – that way, when the oil starts running dry, we'll all be well placed to keep on enjoying our lives here.